Why John Key Will Take Graeme Wheeler’s Independence Away

An independent central bank is better than a government micro-managed central bank.

If you disagree, have a read of the interesting things National Prime Minister Robert Muldoon did with wage and price controls.

Furthermore, the global financial crisis shows what happens when central bankers fold under pressure from politicians and big banks to “do something” in the form of quantitative easing.

Yes, many central bankers desperately wanted to bail out the global financial system, but a good number warned that no good would come of it, and they’ve been proven correct.

A jobless recovery around the world made easier because artificially low interest rates make borrowing for capital investment easier and thus replacing labour with robots is simply a profit maximising strategy for corporations.

Last year I was writing about how the Labour-Greens-NZ First troika could prove disastrous for the independence of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

But I clearly forgot that John Key is an interventionist just as much as Helen Clark ever was. It’s just that he intervenes in different areas of policy.

The issue of housing affordability is on track to become an election issue. If young couples can’t buy houses they are less likely to have kids, which means the demographic ponzi scheme paying for unproductive oldies to stay alive collapses forthwith.

They’re not special though, and don’t deserve special treatment like the first home subsidy – a perversion of Kiwisaver as a retirement savings scheme if there ever was one.

But on the other side of that same coin they don’t deserve another slap down in the form of higher loan-to-value restrictions.

This is because banks are unlikely to grant such loans – which run the risk of negative equity if house prices fall – to low income households.

In the aftermath of Basel III and other risk management changes in the banking sector, loan quality matters a lot more than it did before 2008.

If the Reserve Bank does want to put a speed limit on housing, they are completely ignoring the supply and demand story around housing services.

In fact, they are basically saying that static efficiency (one price for housing! no price changes! a price rise is not a signal but an indication of a bubble!) beats dynamic efficiency.

What they’re also doing is missing the wood from the trees – the reason house prices are going up so quickly is because it’s not only hard to build a house, it’s almost impossible to obtain financing for property development.

And what they’re also doing is forgetting that a lot of house deposits come from parents and grandparents.

Young people in aggregate suck at choosing profitable careers and saving – economic outpatient care is probably the key driver of the Auckland housing market.

How does this work? Well, if two sets of parents chip in tens of thousands of dollars each to the pittance scraped up by Jack & Jill then suddenly a mortgage can be approved.

John Key will foil the Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler on this issue because he knows that despite an independent central bank being an inherently good thing, his 3rd term in government is simply more important.